15 vs.
30-year mortgages
When you buy a home you get a mortgage
loan that's paid back over 15 or 30 years.
Thirty-year loans are popular because:
- The monthly payments are lower than with 15-year
loans.
- You can qualify for a bigger loan (i.e., a more
expensive house) than with a 15-year loan.
- Sometimes that's all you can get. (You might not
qualify for a 15-year loan.)
The downsides of 30-year loans compared to 15-year
loans are that you have to make monthly payments for an
extra 15 years, and you'll pay a lot more
total interest over the life of the loan.
Let's take a look at the difference. Feel free to enter
in your own numbers for your own situation.
If
a 30-year is all you qualify for, then you don't have to
worry about choosing between the two, since there's no
choice to make. You take the 30 because that's all you can
get. But if you can qualify for either, which should you
pick?
In most cases if you have a choice,
you should take the 15. You'll save a bundle of
interest and pay off the loan in half the time.
Note that even if you take the 30, you can still make
prepayments to pay it off in 15 years, and save interest
just as if you had a real 15-year loan. An advantage of
doing it this way is that you keep your monthly payments low
so that if money gets tight, you're not locked into a higher
monthly payment. With a 15-year loan you have to make the
higher payment every month whether you want to or not. With
a 30-year loan whether you make extra payments each month is
up to you. So a 30-year loan gives you some extra
flexibility. Of course, if you're not diligent about making
extra payments on a 30-year loan, then you'll pay more
interest
Taking a 30 and
investing the difference
A possible advantage of a 30-year mortgage is
that since the payments are lower, you can take the money
you're saving each month from the lower payments and invest
it in something else. That keeps your investment liquid,
so if you run into hard times you can easily turn your
investment into cash. If you'd taken a 15-year mortgage your
investment would be locked up in your house, and it wouldn't
be easy for you to turn that equity into cash.
The reason I say this is only a possible advantage
is that it requires you to be diligent in investing the
difference between the payments each month. And unless you
get a great return on your outside investments, you'll wind
up with less money. That's why most people should just get a
15 and not worry about all this. You should invest the
difference to keep your capital liquid only if:
- You're diligent about investing the difference each
month, and
- You're either getting a great return on your outside
investments, or you're willing to sacrifice some return
in order to keep your capital liquid.
Let's see how this works. Let's say your payment would be
$1100/mo. on a 30-year loan vs. $1500/mo. on a 15-year loan.
Instead of taking the 15-year loan for $1500/mo., you take
the 30-year loan for $1100/mo., and invest $400/mo.
separately somewhere else (mutual funds, high-yield CD's,
socially-responsible stocks, etc.).
By doing this your investment remains liquid. Your
house is an investment, sure, but you can't eat your house.
Any money you put into your house is money you can't easily
get back out. The only way to monetize that investment is to
sell the house or borrow against it (refinance or home
equity loan). And if times get tough (like you lose your
job), then ironically no bank will let you borrow
against your home because they're worried that a jobless
person won't be able to pay them back. By contrast, if you
invest your cash in mutual funds or other similar
investments, it's always easy to sell them to access your
cash.
How much you sacrifice for this flexibility depends on
what kind of return you can get on your other investments.
In a scenario I'll run below on a $150k home at 5.75%
interest, investing your extra cash elsewhere at 5.25% means
you'll pay an extra $143k over the life of the loan, vs.
getting a 15-year loan.
Now we'll see why this "investing the difference" idea
isn't the goldmine some seem to think it is.
Why "investing the
difference" doesn't always work
Some writers feel so strongly you should take the 30 that
they so far as to say that 15-year mortgages are a "sucker's
bet"! Dan
Green says that by investing the difference in payments,
you not only keep your cash liquid but you wind up making
more money because you get a bigger tax break on the
higher interest.
I think Mr. Green is wrong. He appears to have
made a number of mistakes in his analysis. First of all, he
says, "Because mortgage interest is tax-advantaged, we
will want to keep the interest as high as possible for as
long as we owe money on the house." No, you do
not want to keep the interest as high as possible,
because the cost of the interest is way more than the amount
of the tax break. Trying to keep your interest payment high
is like spending a dollar to save a quarter.
Second, he assumes that every dollar of mortgage
interest is deductible, but that's not the case. The IRS
lets you "itemize" all your deductions on Schedule A, or you
can just take a blanket $5000 deduction. Let's say you
itemize $7,000 in mortgage interest and $2500 in other
deductions, for a total of $9,500 in deductions. If you
didn't itemize you'd still get the $5,000 standard
deduction. So the extra deduction you get from
itemizing is only $4,500 ($9,500 - $5,000). So the mortgage
interest deduction reduces your taxable income by only
$4,500, not the full $7,000 of mortgage interest you
paid.
Third, he assumes you're in a whopping 33% (!) tax
bracket. Most Americans aren't rich and pay a much lower
percentage of their income in taxes.
Fourth, he assumes you'll invest your annual tax
savings. This is wishful thinking. I can imagine maybe 1
in 1000 people actually being dedicated enough to follow
that plan.
Fifth, he's not considering that the money in your
outside investments is taxable. If you make 5.25% from
your investments, but you're in a 25% tax bracket, your
effective return is only 3.94%. That dramatically reduces
the amount of return you make from compounding.
Finally, I'm not sure he's considering that with a
15-year loan, it's paid off in year 16, and then you can
start investing the money you're not spending on mortgage
payments into something else. I can't tell for sure whether
he's omitting this because the images on his page don't
load.
Put all this together, and we see that 15-year
mortgages easily beat 30-year notes:
|
15-year
|
30-year
|
|
|
Basics
|
|
$150,000
|
$150,000
|
Loan Amount
|
|
5.75%
|
6.00%
|
Interest Rate
|
|
$1,246
|
$899
|
Monthly Payment
|
|
$224,211
|
$323,757
|
Total Payments
|
|
$74,211
|
$173,757
|
Interest paid
|
|
Rate of Return
|
|
5.25%
|
5.25%
|
Return on other investments
|
|
3.94%
|
3.94%
|
Rate of return after taxes (25% bracket)
|
|
Investment income + tax savings
|
|
$304,973
|
|
Income from taking the $1246/mo. that we no
longer have to pay the bank,
and investing it elsewhere for years 16-30
|
|
|
$238,682
|
Income from taking the 30-year loan and
investing the difference
between 15- and 30-year payments, over 30 years
|
|
|
$24,900
|
Tax savings on extra interest paid (see note
below)
|
|
$304,973
|
$263,582
|
Total investment income + tax savings
|
|
Results
|
|
$232,762
|
$89,825
|
Net gain (investment
income + tax savings - interest
paid)
|
Here's why a 30-year can't beat a 15:
- You pay more than twice as much interest
with a 30. In our example, you pay $173k vs.
$72k.
- Investments with a 30 are weaker than with a
15. There's no magic to "taking a 30-year note and
investing the difference", because the return from doing
so is actually less than the returns from
investing with a 15-year note.
- The tax advantages on a 30-year mortgage are
tiny. They don't come close to making a 30-year note
more attractive than a 15 -- even if you're in a high 33%
tax bracket.
So with a 15-year loan you come out way ahead. You
save a ton of interest, and your outside investments
are stronger. Fifteen-year mortgages are for suckers? I
don't think so!
Please do note that even though the 30-year note is more
expensive overall, it does let you have easy access to your
capital, if that's important to you. It's just that in
exchange for that flexibility you'll pay a lot of extra
interest and earn less on any outside investments..
Some final notes on the numbers in the table:
- The rate of return on other investments is
all-important! If your rate of return is less than
what's listed in the table, the amount you forfeit by
going with a 30-year mortgage vs. a 15 is even
greater.
- The tax savings are a rough estimate. I first
figured that on a 30-year loan you pay $323,757 -
$224,211 = $99,546 extra in interest, which is $3318
extra in interest each year. In a 25% bracket, that's
$830/yr., or $24,900 over 30 years.
- Here's my Google
Spreadsheet which has a little more detail about the
numbers in the table.
Related topics:
Last Update: Februray
2008
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